Fantasy NBA: Southwest Division Outlook for 2026-27 Season

Team-by-team fantasy outlooks for the Grizzlies, Mavericks, Pelicans, Rockets and Spurs.

Dan Bruno, RotoWire.com | August 21, 2026 8:52 PM

Victor Wembanyama remains an elite first-round fantasy option heading into his fourth season.

The Southwest Division features a couple of the top teams in the Western Conference, contrasted by three teams looking to rise from the bottom of the standings. The Spurs stand out after reaching the NBA Finals last season, while the Rockets' first-round exit was surely a disappointment. The Pelicans, Grizzlies and Mavericks have no shortage of talent but will need many things to go right to see the playoffs in 2026-27.

San Antonio Spurs

Last season: Finished second in the West with a record of 62-20. Lost to the Knicks in the Finals.

What Changed: Added Tobias Harris. No departures to report.

Fantasy Outlook: New addition Tobias Harris is in a great position to thrive and maintain the solid numbers he has shown throughout his career. Meanwhile, the returning squad should deliver some of the more predictable numbers among all players, as the team is largely unchanged and will be working with a proven system. De'Aaron Fox saw a decrease in his production in 2025-26 compared to the previous year and is likely to deliver similarly to last season, as his role on the Spurs is not based around being a top scorer. Stephon Castle has done nothing but impress through his first two seasons and is on a trajectory to keep adding to his regular production. Dylan Harper was brilliant during the postseason but will be slightly limited by the ceiling of remaining in a bench role. Devin Vassell is positioned to continue to shine from long range, while Keldon Johnson and Julian Champagnie can be relied upon to offer steady value in top reserve roles. Carter Bryant and Harrison Barnes will likely have to fight for every minute of floor time. At center, Victor Wembanyama is undoubtedly projected to be one of the league's top producers, while Luke Kornet should be one of the more trustworthy backup big men in terms of production.

Bottom Line: The Spurs saw the championship slip from their grasp last season. With mostly the same group back for another run, anything short of another Finals appearance would feel like a failure.

Houston Rockets

Last season: Finished fifth in the West with a record of 52-30. Lost to the fourth-place Lakers in the first round.

What Changed: Added Bogdan Bogdanović, Marcus Smart. Lost Dorian Finney-Smith, Josh Okogie.

Fantasy Outlook: Fred VanVleet – expected to return to the lineup after missing all of last season – will be a major boost for the squad. He could quickly return to the status of one of the more notable floor generals in the league. The additions of Bogdan Bogdanović and Marcus Smart also provide critical support in the backcourt, but Smart is more likely to enjoy a regular role. Amen Thompson could see a dip in some areas of production, as he will not have the ball in his hands as much as a playmaker. Nonetheless, this could allow him to focus on excelling in other areas such as defense, rebounding and scoring efficiency. Reed Sheppard will have to continue to earn his minutes amidst more backcourt depth, but he showed that he can certainly step up to the plate with a few impressive outings last season. The squad remains strong in the frontcourt, with Kevin Durant set to lead the charge as the main offensive threat, while Jabari Smith Jr. and Tari Eason can ensure a nonstop rotation of downhill pressure in the frontcourt. Alperen Sengun should continue to prosper as one of the league's best-producing centers, while Steven Adams will likely remain one of the league's best rebounding bigs off the bench. Clint Capela will be there to step in if either Sengun or Adams is out.

Bottom Line: The Rockets underachieved with the first-round exit last season but should have the highest of goals in sight for the new campaign, especially after bolstering their backcourt.

New Orleans Pelicans

Last season: Finished tied for 11th in the West with a record of 26-56.

What Changed: Added Trendon Watford. Lost Kevon Looney.

Fantasy Outlook: Dejounte Murray, who missed most of the 2025-26 campaign, is expected to be at full health for the new year and should return close to pre-injury production as a stat-sheet stuffer. There is also plenty of depth in the backcourt, with Jeremiah Fears and Jordan Poole both likely to see a fair amount of action and stand out as solid contributors. Trey Murphy III has proven that he can deliver as a top offensive option and can be expected to bring close to 20 points per game with efficient long-range shooting. Saddiq Bey and Herbert Jones will be competing for the lion's share of minutes at small forward, as both are capable of filling the box score with their contrasting skillsets. As a result, they could end up splitting time based on what makes sense regarding specific matchups. Zion Williamson can be one of the league's best producers when he is rolling and is primed to build off a solid campaign last season. Derik Queen, Karlo Matković and Yves Missi all showed impressive ability at the center position, with Queen and Matković also being able to pick up supplementary minutes at power forward. Ultimately, the three could end up sharing minutes at center with a relatively even split until one earns preference.

Bottom Line: With minimal additions in the offseason, the Pelicans seem to be banking on a fresh start with an injury-free roster being enough to get them in the hunt for a playoff spot. This is not an unreasonable stance based on the talent within the lineup.

Dallas Mavericks

Last season: Finished tied for 11th in the West with a record of 26-56.

What Changed: Added Santi Aldama, Zaccharie Risacher, Marcus Sasser. Lost Marvin Bagley III, AJ Johnson, Khris Middleton, Ryan Nembhard, Klay Thompson.

Fantasy Outlook: Kyrie Irving missed all of last season due to injury, and his return to action will be a major boost to the squad. It may take him some time to get back to his former numbers, but he is not a player to underestimate. Marcus Sasser showed solid flashes through his first three seasons with the Pistons and is in line to fulfill the backup point guard role. On the other hand, Cooper Flagg spent a good amount of time at point guard last season and could shift into the role for brief stints, which could limit Sasser's total playing time. Flagg remains in place to be the focal point of the offense and should build on the impressive numbers from his rookie season. Max Christie provides a reliable long-range scoring threat and should continue to see more minutes thanks to his youth and the progress he showed last season. Zaccharie Risacher finds himself in a new home after an offseason trade from Atlanta. The former No. 1 pick has shown a few flashes, and the change in environment could spark a new energy from the 21-year-old. P.J. Washington remains in possession of the starting power forward spot and is an under-the-radar producer across the board. Rookie Morez Johnson will have to compete for his minutes, especially with the addition of Santi Aldama, another big man that can stuff the stat sheet. Despite a great season in 2025-26, Naji Marshall could see his numbers dwindle with more competition for minutes. At center, the rotation of Dereck Lively II and Daniel Gafford can be expected to remain fairly even, while Moussa Cisse could certainly demand his own consistent role. This may make it difficult to get the maximum potential in terms of production out of the three.

Bottom Line: After last season, the Mavs really have no place to go but up. However, this will be easier said than done, and anything more than a spot in the Play-In might be an unrealistic goal at this point.

Memphis Grizzlies

Last season: Finished 13th in the West with a record of 25-57.

What Changed: Added Jerami Grant, AJ Johnson, Kris Murray, Quinten Post, D'Angelo Russell and Isaiah Stewart. Lost Santi Aldama, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Ja Morant.

Fantasy Outlook: Scotty Pippen Jr. and Ty Jerome have both proven able to stuff the stat sheet and will likely be competing for the starting job at point guard. Either way, both should see enough time to deliver good value. Sophomore Cedric Coward is in an ideal position to expand his game as much as possible and should show improved production over last season. Jaylen Wells could find himself in a bench role with new addition Jerami Grant potentially expected to serve as the starting small forward and a go-to offensive option. There will be plenty of competition in the frontcourt with guys like Cameron Boozer, Taylor Hendricks, GG Jackson II, Isaiah Stewart and Olivier-Maxence Prosper all competing for precedence. On the other hand, Zach Edey will have a firm grasp on the starting center role and should be looking at a bounce-back season after being hindered by injuries in 2025-26. New addition Quinten Post will look to earn a spot in the rotation with the plethora of forwards/centers mentioned above.

Bottom Line: The Grizzlies hit the reset button, and it is likely to reflect in their ability to stay competitive in the West. The young squad seems more geared toward establishing continuity in their core than making a playoff run.

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